By Ron Borges

Most people in football feel this is the most enjoyable weekend of the year. Not as much hype as Super Bowl weekend but two days filled with usually highly competitive and always fiercely contested match-ups between the best teams left standing in the NFL.

The detritus from wildcard weekend has been cleared away and what remains really are the eight best teams in pro football. By Sunday night that number will be halved and although you may have heard much this weekend that home field advantage doesn’t mean as much in the playoffs as some theorize the truth is it does on divisional weekend.

In another week, when the conference championships games are played, home field advantage is all but meaningless unless it involves a dome team in or out of its element. That could effect the Indianapolis Colts if they survive Sunday’s showdown at home with the Chargers and have to come to New England but not as much as it would have a few years ago, when they were so clearly a team that lived or died on offense alone.

But this weekend home field advantage often proves critical, although one might argue it is not so much that teams are at home but rather than the home teams have the previous week off to heal up, rest their legs and re-focus themselves for a two-game push to the Super Bowl while the visitor began its playoff run, with its inherent pounding both mentally and physically, a week earlier after completing the regular season.

That week off is what is most important at this time of the year and it, more than who is wearing the home jerseys, is what often separates the winners from the losers.

Speaking of winners and losers, last weekend we here at Back and Forth came up big, winning three of four wild-card games. Had instinct been fully followed it would have been a sweep because I didn’t trust Jon Gruden’s Buccaneers, thought they were overrated as a team and mishandled coming down the stretch. But I trusted Eli Manning even less and he came out and played better than any of the other seven quarterbacks in playoff games that weekend.

If Manning can do it again, the Giants could advance to the NFC title game without it being a shock, despite Dallas’ alleged dominance of the NFC all season. But can he? Let’s take a look around and see what we come up with.

LOCKADINI
INDIANAPOLIS – 9 vs. San Diego – Nine is a big number any time and especially so in the playoffs but the Chargers barely eked out a regular-season victory over a Colt team that was missing three of its four top receivers, half its offensive line and some parts of its defense only because Peyton Manning threw six picks and Adam Vinatieri missed a chip shot field goal at the end that would have won it. That game came the weekend after Indy had blown a lead against New England as well. Oh, and did I mention the Chargers needed two big kick returns for scores to win 23-21? San Diego has won eight straight but was nearly derailed by the Tennessee Titans on wildcard weekend. They said Norv Turner was brought in to replace 14-2 Marty Schottenheimer to win a playoff game. He did. He won’t win two. Lay the number and take the COLTS.

NEARLY FIFTY-FIFTY MEANS YOU LOSE THE VIG
DALLAS – 7 ½ vs. N.Y. Giants – The media has fallen for the Giants because if Eli Manning can rise to the occasion it’s a great story. Problem is his team isn’t good enough even if he is. Sure they beat an overrated Tampa team last weekend on the road in the wild-card game and have now won eight straight road games. And yes Eli Manning played like Peyton Manning (almost) but the more salient fact is these are the same Giants who were 1-4 against divisional champions this season. That includes two beat downs at the hands of the Cowboys. Terrell Owens has a bad ankle but says he’ll play. Last time he played a playoff game with a bum wheel he caught 10 for over 120 yards on the Patriots in the Super Bowl and nearly won the game for the Eagles. He knows he scored four touchdowns and wracked up 212 receiving yards this season against New York’s secondary. You think he’s not salivating at the chance to burn them again? The bigger news on the injury front is that Giants’ CB Sam Madison is hobbled and young Corey Webster may have to cover Owens or the returning Terry Glenn. Either situation and Tony Romo will be looking at him more lovingly than he does Jessica Simpson. Lay the points and take the COWBOYS.

THIS IS WHY THEY CALL IT GAMBLING
NEW ENGLAND – 13 ½ vs. Jacksonville – If you’re good enough to go 12-4 and get to the second round of the playoffs you’d think you’re good enough not to be the only double-digit underdog in the playoffs wouldn’t you? Well, simply put, the Jags are not. Now normally I wouldn’t advise laying 13 ½ points in any game, especially a playoff meeting, but the Jags proved last weekend that what I feared most had come true – they’ve gone from an underrated team to an overrated team. Sure they’re physical and they have two very talented running backs and a good return game and solid kicking and a tough defensive front but they’ve also got a quarterback who escaped Pittsburgh last weekend with a win while completing only nine passes and 42.9 per cent of his throws. Tom Brady won’t allow David Gerrard to get away with that football version of the four-corner offense. If Gerrard has to keep up, and he will have to keep up with Brady, the Jags won’t win. But will they lose by 13 ½ with that ball control running game, sound kicking game and tough defense? That’s the question. The answer? Yes. Lay the points and take the PATRIOTS. Then hope for the best.

UPSET SPECIAL
GREEN BAY -8 vs. Seattle – The Pack is back but don’t ask me how. If the MVP award was actually given to the individual most valuable to his team Brett Favre would have won in a landslide because Green Bay is nowhere without him. If you’ve ever been to Green Bay, the town is nowhere with him either but that’s not his fault or the Packers but I digress. Seattle has been unreliable on the road (3-5) and has to worry if quarterback Matt Hasselbeck’s sore wrist will bother him at some point today. But no one knows the flaws in Favre’s game better than Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren. He won a Super Bowl with Favre and would love to come back to Green Bay and remind his old team he still can coach. Seattle’s defense could pressure Favre into errors and the chilly weather could also be a factor but if you’ve ever been in the Pacific Northwest this time of year it’s not exactly Bermuda and balmy either so as long as it’s not frozen tundra time in Green Bay the weather may not be a factor. Other than Favre, the Pack has to rely on young playmakers like RB Ryan Grant and WR Greg Jennings and who knows about them? Their pass rush also comes primarily from its front four and they’ll have trouble getting to Hasselbeck in time because his game is the short West Coast throws Tim Brady favors. The Pack has won 17 of its last 20 and that’s more than a trend and will probably hold off the Seahawks at Lambeau but the points are too big. Take SEATTLE and the eight and hope Hasselbeck’s wrist holds up.

Last week: 3-1
Year to date: 20-32
Lockadini: 4-5.
Upset special: 5-4.