We got a late start on the regular season but quickly slipped into mid-season form, falling behind the bookmakers in a hurry and never catching up. But, as coach Belichick would put it, this is a new season and everyone is 0-0.
Wild-card weekend is always a difficult one to project however because of injuries and the fact that almost every year someone rises up unexpectedly and plays way above their heads. Usually they come crashing down on their heads the following weekend but who knows? Certainly not me.
So let’s take a brief look at the four wild-card games here and see where we end up.
LOCKADINI
1. TAMPA BAY -3 vs. N.Y. Giants – Eli’s coming bet the house now.
Manning was widely praised for playing well against the Patriots last Saturday night when he threw four touchdown passes and nearly upset The Undefeateds but the fact of the matter is when his team most needed him to stay composed he dropped a snap on first down, threw a terrible interception on third down, couldn’t get them into the end zone to answer back to New England’s challenge and wasted so much time on the final scoring drive of the night to render it meaningless.
Other than that, he handled the pressure great.
Well, he’s going to see a lot of pressure in this game and a lot of defenses designed to boggle his mind. Monte Kiffin, Tampa’s defensive coordinator, is a master of that and he’ll pull out all the stop.
Frankly, I don’t think the Bucs are really all that special but they’re special enough to send the Giants home with another one-and-done playoff run. Give the points and take the BUCS.
NEARLY 50-50 CHANCE MEANS YOU LOSE THE VIG
2. SEATTLE – 3 ½ VS. Washington – The Redskins have won four straight and have become the Cinderella story of the post-season after recovering from the shocking murder of Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor in his bedroom five games ago.
They beat four straight NFC opponents to get into the playoffs on the final weekend, although the Cowboys didn’t offer up much resistance in that final game.
The problem for them is they’ve had only five days to prepare for Saturday’s game 3,000 miles from home in Seattle, where the Seahawks are 7-1 this season and are 23-4 the past three seasons, including three straight playoff victories. It’s a long trip on a short week and that doesn’t bode well for the Redskins.
But the real problem for the Redskins is that one can’t expect Todd Collins, who had played about as often as Peyton Manning’s backups the past 10 years, to continue playing the way he has since taking over for injured Redskins QB Jason Campbell. Collins has five TD throws and no interceptions but he’s going to face a lot of pressure from Seattle’s zone blitzes, which usually feature only four pass rushers but a lot of havoc. Seattle wants to limit Washington’s running game to force Collins into more third and longs than he’d like. If they’re successful, he won’t be.
The Seahawks keep talking about running the ball more but Shaun Alexander is a shadow of the player he once was so in the end it seems to come down to Matt Hasselbeck and Seattle’s passing game. They’ll spread the field the way New England does and then throw underneath until they think Washington’s defense is vulnerable and then try to get behind them.
Seattle seems to always be forgotten at this time of year but they have the ninth ranked scoring offense in football (24.6 per game) and sixth ranked scoring defense (18.2 allowed a game). That plus the short week and long trip tells me take the SEAHAWKS and give the points.
THIS IS WHY THEY CALL IT GAMBLING
3. PITTSBURGH + 3 vs. Jacksonville – The Steelers are underdogs at home against the trendy pick in the playoffs. Everyone says the Jaguars have been built to play up north in cold weather and they certainly made that evident when they knocked the Steelers around three weeks ago on this same field to beat them in overtime by running the ball like a steamroller was attached to their offensive linemen.
Jacksonville will attack head on again with their two-pronged running game and a power offense that will try to put it to the Steelers. Pittsburgh is depleted without star runner Willie Parker, putting more heat on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to win the game with his arm. That isn’t the normal Steeler formula but the weather is not supposed to be a factor and people should remember that for all the chest pounding everyone has done about the Jags win over the Steelers they won the game by a touchdown not by a mile.
It’s true that Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew-Jones rushed for a combined 216 yards in week 15 to beat down the Steelers but Parker also had a big day against a defense that isn’t supposed to allow that. Can Najeh Davenport run on the Jags? Why not?
So although Jacksonville is one of the few teams ever to be favored in Pittsburgh in a playoff game, I say when you can get a home team AND points in this kind of situation take it because the better quarterback usually wins these kind of games and that’s Roethlisberger as long as the Steelers figure out how to keep him from being sacked five times again, as he was in the 29-22 overtime loss three weeks ago. Take the STEELERS and the points and remember when your friends all call you crazy that it was 22-22 in the fourth quarter last time not a blow out despite what you may have heard.
UPSET SPECIAL
4. Tennessee + 9 ½ @ SAN DIEGO – The Chargers have been hot of late, hitting their stride at the right time, but this is too big a number to put on a team that is the fifth stingiest run defense in football or to hand to one coached by Norv Turner.
Sure when they met Dec. 9 LaDainian Tomlinson ultimately ran away with the day, gaining 113 yards in the second half and the winning score in overtime, but Tennessee’s stingy run defense held him to 33 yards in the first half and are looking forward to a second shot – and taking repeated shots – at LT.
Tomlinson gashed them five or six times in the second half and as Titan’s LB Keith Bullock quite rightly put it, “I feel it’s hard to say you did a good job on a guy when he had 140-something yards. Minus those five critical plays we did a good job.’’
Tennessee wants to put the pressure on San Diego QB Philip Rivers, trying to force him to have to win the game on his own. If necessary he will but not by two scores.
The biggest concern is with quarterback Vince Young limping and maybe out who knows if the Titans will find their way into the end zone ? Their defense is allowing only 18.6 points per game so if they don’t they blow the spread but 10 points may be enough to beat the oddsmakers but not the Chargers. Take the big number and the TITANS.
Last Week: 3-3
Record to date: 17-31
Lockadini: 4-4
Upset special: 4-4.