Getty Images

By Ron Borges

Usually this time of year somebody surprises. This first playoff weekend will be no different but the surprises may be more surprising than usual.
For the first time in recent memory, the Pittsburgh Steelers are underdogs at home in a playoff game, the odds makers having made the Jacksonville Jaguars three point favorites. Far be it from me to question the wisdom of people like Robert Walker at The Mirage but the prevailing opinion on the Jags have taken them from underrated to overrated in a matter of three short weekends.
Sure the Jags have a physical team built to beat down their division rivals, the Indianapolis Colts, but they haven’t yet managed to do that yet, in case anyone hasn’t noticed.
Ad, yes, they did beat down the Steelers in a Week 15 assault in which they rushed for 216 yards and pounded them down in overtime, 29-22, but it seems like that victory so shocked some folks that it seems as if people have forgotten the game was tied 22-22 in the fourth quarter. It was an overtime victory on the road against a Steeler team that has been erratic all season and may be running out of gas but it was not a one-sided blow out, the way some commentators seem to be playing it now.
Listen to some of these guys and you have to wonder why the Steelers are bothering to show up. The Jags have been anointed as this year’s wild-eyed wild-card team. Maybe they’ll prove to be just that but the Colts handled them twice this season and though physical they have yet to prove they’ll have a second game in Pittsburgh in which they harass Ben Roethlisberger the way they did three weeks ago.
Those five sacks kept the Steeler passing game out of sync all day and it dovetailed with the Jags’ own ability to protect David Garrard, who threw 33 times without being sacked. Couple those things with their powerful running game and you see why people are excited in Jacksonville but before you go and blow the kids’ college fund loading up on the Jaguars remember this: the Steelers defense had allowed only two 100-yard rushers in 63 games up to the afternoon Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew ran over them.
Worse for the Jags, the Steelers were embarrassed at the way they were manhandled at the line of scrimmage both offensively and defensively and intend to prove that was just a bad day at the office.
And they’re playing at the home office not on the road and are still being seen as underdogs, which also is eating at them. None of those things will mean anything if the Jags can again run the ball down their throats but the Steelers have the second stingiest defense in the league this year, allowing only 16.8 points a game, and they have the better and more playoff-tested quarterback in Roethlisberger.
Remember too, that for as well and as physical as the Jaguars played that day, Pittsburgh running back Willie Parker also ran for over 100 yards. He’s out now with a broken fibula but if you don’t think Najeh Davenport is capable of rushing for more than 100 the hard way – three yards at a time – you haven’t been paying attention. Then again, maybe that’s the problem because he does lack Parker’s explosiveness.
Taylor and Jones-Drew carried 35 times for those 216 yards to literally carry the day while the defense got to Roethlisberger five times in 33 pass attempts. All notable achievements. The question I have is this: can the Jags do all that again?
The reason I ask is even with all that they had to go into overtime to win. What happens if the better quarterback, Roethlisberger, gets better protection? What happens if the Steelers’ run defense has just an average day for them instead of the abominable one they suffered through? Or are the Jaguars really just superior to the Steelers?
Certainly the fact Taylor is averaging 111 yards rushing a game the past five weeks speaks well for Jacksonville as does the fact its defense has allowed only 16 points a game in those past five weeks.
Then again, the Steelers come into his game with the No. 1 defense in the league in terms of yards allowed (262 a game) and the second stingiest in terms of points allowed and they’re playing on familiar turf in front of a friendly crowd with ample motivation.
Those things don’t mean the Steelers will break Cinderella’s cleats but they tell me they shouldn’t be underdogs in their own building to the only team to beat them at home (in overtime we point out again) this season.
The conventional wisdom however favors the Jags, who come into this game hot while the Steelers have lost three of their last four and are without their leading rusher. So why do I feel Pittsburgh will come up with something wild themselves?
As for the other three games, I don’t like the ‘Skins having to go to Seattle on a short week. They’ve won four straight and seem buoyed by the memory of Sean Taylor but they could have used Taylor against the Seahawks’ passing attack and he won’t be there. A week from now I’m not sure Joe Gibbs and his Redskins will be As for Sunday’s games, don’t be fooled by last Saturday’s gutsy effort by the Giants. Eli Manning played well enough…until he had to make a play to keep his team alive with the pressure on. What happened then?
He fumbled the first snap and two plays later threw a terrible interception. Then he wasted nearly a minute in the final scoring drive of the game even though his team needed two scores to win or tie. In other words, he played the way he’s played whenever the real pressure has been on him since first arriving in New York.
Why should that performance convince you he’s capable of elevating his game and his team in Tampa against a superior defense? It shouldn’t.
As for the Chargers, A.J. Smith may be glad he got that five year extension BEFORE the owner sees Norv Turner coaching in the playoffs. He has the superior team to the Titans, a runner who can carry the load and finally is and a lot of motivation after what’s happened to the Chargers in the post-season recently.
Is that enough to get San Diego a playoff victory? Yeah but it may not be as easy as it should be against a team with Kerry Collins running their offense.