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NFL PICK SIX (Week of 11-16-07)

November 16th, 2007 · No Comments

By Ron Borges

Last week’s effort led to a 3-3 split and a lockadini winner but unless you loaded up on that one, or on the upset special that also hit, you lost the vig and a few more dollars. So it goes.

Unless, of course, you follow the advice of some of my loyal readers, who study these picks and then go the other way. Over time that will probably get you a house in the Bahamas.

So now we take another venture into the unknown and do what we can to help our gambling-addicted friends contribute to the betterment of other people’s college funds.

LOCKADINI OF THE WEEK

1. DALLAS – 101/2 vs. Washington – It’s a lot of points against a division rival but the Cowboys are much the better team and the ‘Skins would be on a three-game losing skid had they not managed to beat the Jets in overtime. Dallas has covered against all the average teams they’ve played as well as all their division opponents. With Sean Taylor out of a secondary that was already 22nd in the league vs. the pass facing the third rated quarterback in the NFL in Tony Romo lay the points and take the COWBOYS at home.

NEARLY A SURE THING DEPT.

2. SAN FRANCISCO +3 vs. St. Louis – I know the 49ers have no offense and have lost seven in a row but give me ONE reason why the 1-8 Rams should be favored against anybody on the road? Or at home, for that matter? Take the home dog (which in this case is a literal statement) and the points and go with the 49ERS.

3. Tennessee + 2 at DENVER – Normally you never pick against the Broncos at home but this is not a normal season in Denver. No snow and no running game equals no shot to beat the Titans. Tennessee is 4th in the NFL in rushing offense and rushing defense. Denver is 13th in rushing offense and 31st in rushing defense. On a day when it’s supposed to be 25 degrees and blustery go with the best running game and the better running defense. That ain’t the Broncos. Add to that the fact that young QB Vince Young expressed concerns this week that his team had lost faith in him and you should see an inspired effort by the TITANS.

50-50 CHANCE YOU LOSE THE VIG

4. New Orleans +1 @ HOUSTON – The Saints seemed to have righted their ship until they took on more water last weekend but I still believe Sean Payton has them playing better football now. They’re also a home dog, which is always wise to take, and RB Reggie Bush would sorely like to remind the Texans that they should have drafted him instead of Mario Williams. They’re two evenly matched average teams so go with the home dog and take the SAINTS.

5. DETROIT + 3 vs. New York Giants – Detroit is 4-0 at home, the Giants are frauds who have not shown the ability to beat the better teams in the NFC and the Lions, at least at home, are one of those teams. Both are fighting it out for a wildcard playoff slot and both know they aren’t likely to catch division-leading Dallas or Green Bay (both at 8-1). Certainly Detroit has allowed a league-high 40 sacks and is playing a team that can rush the quarterback but despite that Jon Kitna has completed over 68 per cent of his throws and the Lions are third in the NFC in scoring (221 points). Take the home dog again and bet DETROIT.

UPSET SPECIAL

Kansas City + 14 ½ @ INDIANAPOLIS – The Colts may have as many as seven starters out of this game and that includes pass rushing specialist Dwight Freeney, whose gone for the season. Still Indy has lost two straight, is playing at home and is facing a sub-par Chiefs pass defense and untested Brodie Croyle at quarterback in place of struggling Damon Huard so it figures they win big. They may but not this big because Tony Dungy doesn’t figure to run it up on his old friend Herman Edwards. Take the CHIEFS and the points because it’s a lot of points.

Last week: 3-3.

Year to date: 5-7

Lockadini: 1-1

Upset Special: 1-1

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Tags: Game Predictions & Analysis · Football · General

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