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NFL - Pick Six

November 11th, 2007 · No Comments

By Ron Borges

The first week of selections performed pretty much as my long-time observers would have expected: 2-4 with a losing Lockadini. At that rate we’ll be broke long before the Super Bowl.

This continues a long tradition of helping out the gambling public. Some have figured out the proper formula, which is to study these selections and then do the wise thing – go in the opposite direction.

Of course, as in the NFL, on any given Sunday…we might go 4-2 and there goes the vig.

 

LOCKADINI OF THE WEEK

1. Dallas – 1 ½ @ N.Y. GIANTS – The Giants have won six in a row and say they intend to perform far better than they did when they were overwhelmed earlier this season by the Cowboys. They may not be overwhelmed this time but give the points because the Giants have covered just four of 16 home games against road teams with winning records. The Cowboys’ defense is ranked fifth in the NFL against the run and they’ll show Brandon Jacobs why. Lay the points and take the COWBOYS.

NEARLY A SURE THING

2. KANSAS CITY (-3) over Denver – Sometimes a 3-5 record could fool you but not in the case of the Broncos, who truly stink. Kansas City isn’t anything special but they play hard, especially at home, and are solid on defense. Denver has been outscored by 101 points, second only to the Rams, and are 1-7 against the spread. Worse, Denver is last in the NFL in rushing defense, which plays right into what Herman Edwards like to do most on offense – run the ball.

3. TENNESSEE -4 vs. Jacksonville – The Titans are playing their third straight home game while the Jags are on the road for a third straight game. That may not mean as much as the Titans defense, which is No. 1 against the run. Fred Taylor rushed for only 16 yards in Tennessee’s 13-10 season opening win against the Jags. It will be just as difficult for him this time but the Jags won’t be. Lay the points and go with the TITANS.

50-50 MEANS YOU LOSE THE VIG – AND MAYBE THESE GAMES

4. Cleveland + 91/2 @ PITTSBURGH – Cleveland has won three straight and four of its last five to jump to a surprising 5-3. The Browns still have much to prove and here’s the chance to do it against a Steeler team that’s facing three gimme games after this one. Problem is, Pittsburgh scored 38 on the Ravens’ No.2-ranked defense so what will they do against the league’s worst? Enough to cover that spread. STEELERS cover.

5. SEATTLE -10 vs. San Francisco – The Seahawks beat San Francisco by 20 in their first meeting and that’s when the Niners thought they still had a chance to be competitive. Now they’ve lost six in a row. Seattle is nothing special but a win could give them a little breathing room in a bad, bad division and they know it. Look for the Niners to continue to struggle on the road.

LONGSHOT UPSET SPECIAL

6. Rams + 11 ½ @ NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans has won four straight while the rams are 0-for-the-season so there seems no way to lean this way. Hence we go in that direction. This looks like a classic trap game, especially with the well rested Rams coming off a badly needed bye week. Actually, St. Louis stirred a little before losing to the Browns by a touchdown last week and running back Steven Jackson should be healthy. When he has been the Rams have been competitive. Take the points and the RAMS. 

Record last week: 2-4. Lockadini: 0-1. Upset special: 0-1.

Year-to-date:         2-4                    0-1                          0-1.

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Tags: Game Predictions & Analysis · Football

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